‘The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same’
Lecture Series By Satyajit Das – Programme Jointly Organised By MIBA And SIDC
Lecture 1 – After 2008: What Has and Hasn’t Changed!
The events of 2008 are now regarded as history and most financial market participants believe a repeat is unlikely. This may grossly underestimate the artificial nature of the recovery and the problems that lie ahead.
This talk looks at:
- The causes of 2008 and whether they have been dealt with
- The ‘side-effects’ of the ‘cure’ of massive government intervention including risky debt and financial risk taking
- The difficulty of a sustainable return to the previous economic and financial status quo
- The type of conditions that are likely to be ahead – the Age of Stagnation
- Potential future crisis triggers including possible extent of such an event
- Likely policy responses in any future crisis
Lecture 2 – Emerging Markets: Nothing Could Go Wrong, Could It?
A slow-motion crisis has been evolving intermittently in emerging markets since 2013 when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s ‘taper tantrum’ created volatility. Temporary liquidity pulses from developed markets and China have masked deep-seated structural imbalances which will eventually need resolution.
This talk looks at:
- The ‘Text-book’ conditions for an emerging market crisis and whether they currently exist
- Potential triggers for an adjustment
- How emerging market crisis may evolve – the ‘doom loop’
- Have the lessons learned from previous crisis been learnt and will they help avoid a new crisis?
- Potential impact on Malaysia of such a crisis